How long did they plan it ?

Subject: How long did they plan it ? Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:58 pm

This thread is here to argue / guess how long each shooter actively planned his shooting (not just thought about it).
For example (as we all know)
Eric & Dylan : 1 year
Kip kinkel : the day before
etc

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Genildo Ferreira de França: 1 year

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Euler Fernando Grandolpho : 10 years

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Adam Lanza planned it for up to 4 years?
Anders Brievik 8 years?
I think Michael Ryan was planning on becoming a Serial Killer, when he was stalking people in Savernake Forest, but after he killed his first victim, he panicked and bacame a Mass Shooter then bcame An Hero.

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:46 pm

Ziamber II wrote:: Adam Lanza planned it for up to 4 years?
Anders Brievik 8 years?
I think Michael Ryan was planning on becoming a Serial Killer, when he was stalking people in Savernake Forest, but after he killed his first victim, he panicked and bacame a Mass Shooter then bcame An Hero.

No proof and zero evidence that Michael Ryan had any thoughts of becoming a serial killer at all. Guy may have been a bit stalker but his eventual killing spree was improvised on the spot and was largely unplanned compared to other mass shootings. The shootings in Hungerford only happened after his car didn't start, he was more likely to try to make a run for it and hide out Raoul Moat style.

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UncontinuedProcess wrote:

Ziamber II wrote:: Adam Lanza planned it for up to 4 years?
Anders Brievik 8 years?
I think Michael Ryan was planning on becoming a Serial Killer, when he was stalking people in Savernake Forest, but after he killed his first victim, he panicked and bacame a Mass Shooter then bcame An Hero.

No proof and zero evidence that Michael Ryan had any thoughts of becoming a serial killer at all. Guy may have been a bit stalker but his eventual killing spree was improvised on the spot and was largely unplanned compared to other mass shootings. The shootings in Hungerford only happened after his car didn't start, he was more likely to try to make a run for it and hide out Raoul Moat style.

What he did when he first encountered his first victim in Savernake Forest seems very Cerial Killer like, but he panicked and then became a Spree Killer. If he had originally planned to become a Spree Killer, he would have filled up with fuel before going to Savernake Forest, and have all his guns and ammo with him. His plan might have been to become the Cerial Killer of Savernake Forest. This is only my theory, and there is no evidence to sugest this.

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:12 pm

Ziamber II wrote:

UncontinuedProcess wrote:

Ziamber II wrote:: Adam Lanza planned it for up to 4 years?
Anders Brievik 8 years?
I think Michael Ryan was planning on becoming a Serial Killer, when he was stalking people in Savernake Forest, but after he killed his first victim, he panicked and bacame a Mass Shooter then bcame An Hero.

No proof and zero evidence that Michael Ryan had any thoughts of becoming a serial killer at all. Guy may have been a bit stalker but his eventual killing spree was improvised on the spot and was largely unplanned compared to other mass shootings. The shootings in Hungerford only happened after his car didn't start, he was more likely to try to make a run for it and hide out Raoul Moat style.

What he did when he first encountered his first victim in Savernake Forest seems very Cerial Killer like, but he panicked and then became a Spree Killer. If he had originally planned to become a Spree Killer, he would have filled up with fuel before going to Savernake Forest, and have all his guns and ammo with him. His plan might have been to become the Cerial Killer of Savernake Forest. This is only my theory, and there is no evidence to sugest this.

Michael doing something similar to a Serial killer means he had Planned to become one at all. You almost completely missed the fact that his killing spree was unplanned as I mentioned before. Ryan only had the Beretta and M1 carbine during the Savernake Forest and A4 Petrol Station shootings before acquiring the rest of his weapons at his houses. All future killings in Hungerford because of his car not starting. Michael even said that he did intend to do what he ended up doing that day to police before killing himself.

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Michael Ryan is one of the most mysertious Shooters, and very little is known of him.

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:26 am

Robert Steinhäuser = 6 months
David Ali Sonboly = 1 year+
Elliot Rodger = 10 months

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:21 am

2016 Normandy church attack = 5 days

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:25 am

London Bridge Attack = about 5 to 6 months

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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:52 am

UncontinuedProcess wrote:

Ziamber II wrote:: Adam Lanza planned it for up to 4 years?
Anders Brievik 8 years?
I think Michael Ryan was planning on becoming a Serial Killer, when he was stalking people in Savernake Forest, but after he killed his first victim, he panicked and bacame a Mass Shooter then bcame An Hero.

No proof and zero evidence that Michael Ryan had any thoughts of becoming a serial killer at all. Guy may have been a bit stalker but his eventual killing spree was improvised on the spot and was largely unplanned compared to other mass shootings. The shootings in Hungerford only happened after his car didn't start, he was more likely to try to make a run for it and hide out Raoul Moat style.

One of the motives was mental illness, even one of the witnesses said that he stared at his rifle in horror.

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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:09 pm

I heard Martin Saari planned his attack for six years.

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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:56 am

AmericaMan wrote:: London Bridge Attack = about 5 to 6 months

Something like that seems odd. Hiring a van and making some replica bomb vests would have taken a day or two at most. What could have possibly taken that long?

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:25 pm

aperiogaming1 wrote:

AmericaMan wrote:: London Bridge Attack = about 5 to 6 months

Something like that seems odd. Hiring a van and making some replica bomb vests would have taken a day or two at most. What could have possibly taken that long?

Communications, getting to know each other, meetings, an attempt to obtain a gun, and funding. They hired the van on the last day, and they bought knives and bottles in May.

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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:43 pm

Matti Saari planned it for 6 years.https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE48N8G620080924

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:59 pm

Martin Bryant had been planning his crime for at least 4 weeks, I think.

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:55 am

AmericaMan wrote:

aperiogaming1 wrote:

AmericaMan wrote:: London Bridge Attack = about 5 to 6 months

Something like that seems odd. Hiring a van and making some replica bomb vests would have taken a day or two at most. What could have possibly taken that long?

Communications, getting to know each other, meetings, an attempt to obtain a gun, and funding. They hired the van on the last day, and they bought knives and bottles in May.

Haven't heard about them trying to get a gun. Got a source?

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:02 pm

InsaneIntruder wrote:

AmericaMan wrote:

aperiogaming1 wrote:

AmericaMan wrote:: London Bridge Attack = about 5 to 6 months

Something like that seems odd. Hiring a van and making some replica bomb vests would have taken a day or two at most. What could have possibly taken that long?

Communications, getting to know each other, meetings, an attempt to obtain a gun, and funding. They hired the van on the last day, and they bought knives and bottles in May.

Haven't heard about them trying to get a gun. Got a source?

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Pekka-Eric Auvinen: 9 months (March 2007)
Guilherme Taucci Monteiro and Henrique de Castro: 5 months (November 2018)
Alex Hribal(not a shooter): 9 months (August 2013)
Brenton Tarrant: 2 years

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:53 pm

9/11 - around 3 years
EDIT: Just a note, I'm judging this based on when Usama Bin Ladin approved the plot and when the Hamburg Cell, which the hijackers were apart of, was formed. Usama apparently approved it in late 1998 or early 1999 and the Hamburg Cell apparently formed in November 1998, so I'm assuming it began in late 1998. Although Khalid Sheikh Muhammad came up with the idea years before, al-Qaeda did not act on it or properly start planning until around this time period so I'm not counting that.

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InsaneIntruder wrote:: 9/11 - around 3 years

What a spectacuar result that was, i remember that day, "Terrible things have been happening in America today".

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:40 pm

TheOne99 wrote:: Pekka-Eric Auvinen: 9 months (March 2007)
Guilherme Taucci Monteiro and Henrique de Castro: 5 months (November 2018)
Alex Hribal(not a shooter): 9 months (August 2013)
Brenton Tarrant: 2 years

I read a few times that the suzano shooters planned it for around a year , do you have a source on when they started it ? (as you say in november)

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6psicótico6orgulhoso6 wrote:

TheOne99 wrote:: Pekka-Eric Auvinen: 9 months (March 2007)
Guilherme Taucci Monteiro and Henrique de Castro: 5 months (November 2018)
Alex Hribal(not a shooter): 9 months (August 2013)
Brenton Tarrant: 2 years

I read a few times that the suzano shooters planned it for around a year , do you have a source on when they started it ? (as you say in november)

It was on a news article that said they had started planning it as early as November, but it could be wrong if you say they were planning it for around a year

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Dmitry Vinogradev: 11 months (Since January 2012)

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emanresu wrote:: Seung-Hui Cho - 3 months

Source?
He wanted to commit an attack when he was 14 or 15.

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anonman wrote:

emanresu wrote:: Seung-Hui Cho - 3 months

Source?
He wanted to commit an attack when he was 14 or 15.

I think maybe he had the thoughts at that age but it would take a long time before he decided he was actually going to do it

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According to an article, Federico Guevara warned that he would bring a gun to school not only a day before the shooting, but since October 2016.

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Jesse Osborne: 2 years

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TheOne99 wrote:: Jesse Osborne: 2 years

source?

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:18 pm

2017 Barcelona attacks - Before the house explosion: More than a year
- After the house explosion: About one hour and 30 minutes.

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anonman wrote:

TheOne99 wrote:: Jesse Osborne: 2 years

source?

a news report video, but another video claimed he had been planning it for weeks (unspecified) while I think I saw another one say for months, (idk it all jumps all over the place)

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:45 pm

Robert Benjamin Smith - About 3 months

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"Now! Feel death, not just mocking you. Not just stalking you but inside of you. Wriggle and writhe. Feel smaller beneath my might. Seizure in the Pestilence that is my scythe. Die, all of you."
- T.J. Lane (in his Facebook poem)

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Andrew Kehoe: Spring 1926

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:34 am

John Zawahri: 7 years

Erik Ayala: 5 years

_________________
"Now! Feel death, not just mocking you. Not just stalking you but inside of you. Wriggle and writhe. Feel smaller beneath my might. Seizure in the Pestilence that is my scythe. Die, all of you."
- T.J. Lane (in his Facebook poem)

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Carnifex879 wrote:: John Zawahri: 7 years

Erik Ayala: 5 years

Source on Erik Ayala?

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:58 am

Joel Marin: 2 years
Source

_________________
"Now! Feel death, not just mocking you. Not just stalking you but inside of you. Wriggle and writhe. Feel smaller beneath my might. Seizure in the Pestilence that is my scythe. Die, all of you."
- T.J. Lane (in his Facebook poem)

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Patrick Crusius: 1 month

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:29 pm

Trey Sesler's homicidal fantasies: 10 years
Plans of a mass shooting / school shooting / vehicle ramming: since 2011, around one year
"Doing something bad" to his father: 4 months
Actually killing his family: 30 minutes to an hour

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:13 pm

diabolus wrote:

Carnifex879 wrote:: John Zawahri: 7 years

Erik Ayala: 5 years

Source on Erik Ayala?

Now that I think about it, it might've been about 7 - 9 years. He was considered a "threat" in 2000 after an anonymous tip that he wanted to shoot up his high school. He was hospitalized for a suicide attempt in 2002. So he must've thought about shooting people for awhile, but when he decided on the nightclub is beyond my knowledge.

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_________________
"Now! Feel death, not just mocking you. Not just stalking you but inside of you. Wriggle and writhe. Feel smaller beneath my might. Seizure in the Pestilence that is my scythe. Die, all of you."
- T.J. Lane (in his Facebook poem)

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:29 pm

Dylann Roof was thinking about "what he might do" for around 7 months before his attack.

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:48 pm

Randy Stair:
"I’ve been planning to do this [a mass shooting] for at least three to four months."
"I’ve been conspiring to end my life for at least 4 ½ years."

Farhan Towhid and Tanvir Farhan (brothers, familicide murder-suicide):
42 days (planning started on February 21, 2021, though they've been suicidal for years.)

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:50 pm

Armando Hernandez (Westgate mall shooting): three to four years.

Edit: Philippe (2008 Olivier de Serres middle school stabbing): several months

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:45 pm

Matti Saari - 6 years although someone claimed he was planning the attack for only 6 months

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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:12 pm

Kimveer Gill - At least one month
Edmar Freitas - Two months

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:22 pm

Duílio Pessotto - 3 days (apparently)

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Their subconscious will cause them to do so."
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"But hey, you wouldn't have signed on if you weren't planning to becoming a martyr. So let's get to work."
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Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:29 am

Alvaro Castillo: 4 months (since April 20th 2006)
Sebastian Bosse (attempted): 2 years and 5 months (since earliest June 2004)
Jose Reyes: 2 days, presumably
2019 Sri Lanka Bombings: 2 months (since January 2019)
Anton Lundin Pettersson: 2 weeks
George Sodini: Around a year (since Summer 2008)
James Holmes: Around two months
Caleb Sharpe: 2 years
(All shamelessly plagiarized from here.)

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:57 pm

Andrew Golden and Mitchell Johnson: As early as four months (December 1997,) although the switch from fantasy to reality may have occured a week or less beforeband.
(Source.)

Subject: Re: How long did they plan it ? Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:48 am

Jon Romano fantasized about a shooting for around a year beforehand.

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In a new interview it was confirmed that Suzano's shooters had been planning the massacre for 4 years. If i'm not miscalculating that means that they started the plan when Luiz was 21 and Guilherme was 13 years old.

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